000 AGXX40 KNHC 241959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF TAMPA BAY TO WEAK FRONTAL LOW NEAR 26N96W TO MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N97W WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY E TO ALONG 94W ACROSS W BASIN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW STRONG NLY FLOW TO SPILL INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING MINIMAL GALES FROM AROUND 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18S SUN...WHILE UKMET HANGS ON TO GALES OVERNIGHT SUN. CURRENTLY GOING WITH GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. FRONT TO THEN STALL ACROSS W GULF AS NEW REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS ACROSS SE U.S. AND ACCOMPANYING NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO SW N ATLC MON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NRN PLAINS THEN COMES INTO PHASE WITH CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS TO PRODUCE DEEPENING LOW ACROSS CENTRAL GULF STATES AND REINFORCING FRONT TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE GULF TUE THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT BRIEFLY...CONFINED TO AREAS N OF 26N. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 31N WILL MOVE E AS STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NW PORTIONS MOVES SE AND STRETCHES TO NEAR BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT STALLS FROM 28N65W TO 27N80W WHERE IS DISSIPATES. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA MON AND FROM 29N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON NIGHT. NORTHERN PORTION OF FRONT CONTINUES E WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA BY TUE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CHANCE FOR GALES N OF 29-30N E OF 70W MON AND MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY WED AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING WINDS 25 TO 30 KT S OF 14-15N FROM 73W-78W. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SEAS ON FRINGES OF THIS REGION WERE 2-4 FT BELOW WWIII AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AS RIDGE HIGH ACROSS THE ATLC WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E...AND THEN DROP OFF TO GENERALLY 15-20 KT WED AND THU AS SERIES OF FRONTS SWEEP ACROSS N PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING...GMZ082 W OF 95W TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE . .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING