000 AGXX40 KNHC 221906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EST THU DEC 22 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF JUST S OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N97.5W. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 25N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE REPORTING N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS...WHILE A 1518 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY FRI WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION RETREATING BACK TO THE W AS A WARM FRONT FRI INTO SAT. A REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SAT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE S OF 25N W OF 94W SAT NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUN. GALE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER...EXCEPT S OF 21N W OF 94W WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY MON AFTERNOON. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL DEVELOP...BUILDING SEAS TO 17-18 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF AT THE TAIL END OF A NORTHERLY FETCH ZONE. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE REINFORCING SURGE AND WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN...MOVING BACK TO THE W YET AGAIN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS MON INTO TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOLID 25-30 KT WINDS WITH SEVERAL 30-35 KT WINDS. GIVEN THE INSTRUMENTS PROVEN LOW BIAS AROUND THIS WIND RANGE EXPECT WINDS TO INDEED BE 30-40 KT. UNFORTUNATELY A SUBSEQUENT LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS MISSED THE WARNING AREA. ALSO...AN EARLIER JASON ALTIMETER PASS SAMPLED SEAS TO 16 FT IN THE GALE WARNING AREA AND MORNING SHIP OBS REPORTED 18-19 FT SEAS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CONTRACT TO CLOSER TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BECOMING CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 13 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE SHEARLINE THAT WAS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAS BECOME DIFFUSE. THIS FEATURE BROUGHT AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN TO TRINIDAD THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ALONG 31N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. NE-E SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO MAINLY THE SE PORTION WITH LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORTING 10-14 FT SEAS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY SAT. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING SE ON FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT MORNING...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT EVENING STALLING OUT AND WEAKENING ALONG 29N ON SUN. A NEW AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THEREAFTER EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO CAPE CANAVERAL SUN EVENING...FROM 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA MON MORNING... THEN FROM 25N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE MORNING. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N/28N. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE MON INTO TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GMZ082 W OF 94W LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ082-084-086 FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY