000 AGXX40 KNHC 220701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST THU DEC 22 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED NE AS A WARM FRONT TO JUST ALONG THE TX AND NE MEXICAN COASTS. STILL EXPECT A REINFORCING NLY SURGE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAIRLY FAST TO THE E TONIGHT THEN ABRUPTLY SLOW AND ALONG A POSITION FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT MIDDAY FRI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE...BUT EXPECT THE E PORTION OF THE FRONT TO STALL ACROSS FL AND THE E GULF ALONG 26-27N FRI NIGHT AND SAT... PERHAPS DRIFT SLOWLY N SUN BEFORE FINALLY MOVING SE OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT TO ACROSS THE FL STRAITS ON MON. THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT IS MORE CHALLENGING. THE WESTERN PORTION HANGS UP FROM ABOUT 26N90W TO 22N93W TO 18N92W LATE FRI WITH A FRONTAL WAVE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 24N95W LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN MOVING NE TO NEAR 27N88W ON SUN WITH THE LOW THEN DISSIPATING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LEAPS NE TO A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE GA COAST NEAR 32N79W SUN AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE GULF SUN PUSHING THE FRONT TO THE SE WATERS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUSH IT S OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS PERSISTING OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF INTO TUE. NLY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE W OF THE FRONT FROM SUNSET SAT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH WINDS TO 40 KT NEAR 20N95W SUN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST SE OF BERMUDA HAS A RIDGE SW TO THE NE FL COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY FRI THEN THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E TO ALONG 28N E OF 70W ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW WATERS AROUND SUNSET FRI. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E PASSING BERMUDA SAT NIGHT BUT THE WESTERN PORTION REACHES ONLY ALONG 29N AND ACROSS FL SAT NIGHT. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N SUN AS A LOW PRES FORMS JUST OFF THE GA COAST. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE IT WILL MOVE THE FRONTAL REMNANTS SE AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND WHILE LIFTING THE E PORTION OF THE FRONT N ACROSS BERMUDA IN STRONG SLY FLOW. THE STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS MIDDAY MON...THEN FROM 29N55W TO 25N65W THEN STATIONARY TO S FL AROUND SUNRISE TUE WITH THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT W OF 65W LIFTING N LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NE-E FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY. A LARGE AREA NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 25-35 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF 95W LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ082-084-086 FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON