000 AGXX40 KNHC 210617 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EST WED DEC 21 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SW LA TO THE EXTREME NW BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL STALL FROM THE MS DELTA TO 25N95W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND MIDDAY. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AND PUSH THE FRONT NW TONIGHT TO JUST ALONG THE TX COAST JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THU. GUIDANCE FLUCTUATES WITH ONE SCENARIO BEING THE SECONDARY NLY SURGE PUSHING THE FRONT E AGAIN...AND THE SECOND SCENARIO BEING A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR SE TX AND RACING NE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS EVENTUALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT E AGAIN. IN ANY EVENT...THE FRONT BECOMES STRONGER THU AND RACES E TO A POSITION FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE FRI...THEN THE FRONTS SLOWS BUT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL REACH E TO W ALONG 26N ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT ITS WESTERN SEGMENT SEEMS TO HANG UP OVER THE SW GULF WATERS SUN. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE W OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN MORNING. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N70W WILL SHIFT ENE WITH A RIDGE CONTINUING SW TO THE NE FL COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI THEN THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FL COAST NEAR 28N SAT NIGHT...AND FROM 29N55W TO 27N65W...THEN STATIONARY TO NE FL ON SUN NIGHT WITH THIS W PORTION OF THE FRONT DRIFTING N BY MON MORNING. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE FL COAST TODAY...BUT DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT...THEN CHANGE LITTLE TILL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT WITH WINDS QUICKLY TO VEERING TO NE 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT S OF 25N THROUGH THU...THEN S OF 24N FRI AND S OF 22N SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N55W TO ACROSS THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN SHOULD WASH OUT LATER TODAY. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NE-E FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 25-30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 25N W OF 95W SAT NIGHT-SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON