000 AGXX40 KNHC 201955 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST TUE DEC 20 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REVEAL AN E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF E OF 95W EXCEPT S OF 25N E OF 85W WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE AT 20-25 KT. W OF 95W...A COLD FRONT ENTERED FAR WESTERN WATERS THIS MORNING...AND HAD REACHED FROM SW LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO S-SW AT 15-20 KT...AND BEHIND IT THEY ARE NW-N 15-20 KT. NWS RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF E OF 88W...AND OVER MUCH OF THE N AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT NOW UP TO 8 FT IN THE FAR W PORTION E OF CENTRAL TEXAS PER BUOY 42019 AT 28N95W. BESIDE THE COLD FRONT FEATURE...THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE SHOWS HIGH PRES NOW CONFINED TO E OF 90W. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE WEAK COLD FRONT...OF PACIFIC ORIGIN... IS FORECAST TO MOVE E TO A POSITION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NW TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT E OF S TEXAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARDS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THU PUSHING THE FRONT BACK E AS A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI...FROM NE FLORIDA TO 25N92W THEN STATIONARY TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT...AND FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N89W THEN STATIONARY TO S CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR MASS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. THE STRONG OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IN SHOWING HIGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT...UP TO 14 FT...FOR SAT AND SUN VERSUS EARLIER RUNS WHERE SEAS WERE MUCH LOWER. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW HAVING PUSHED TO FAR EXTREME SE WATERS JUST PAST PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON NWS RADAR FROM SAN JUAN ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS. A HIGH OF 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 30N69W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ...AND ANOTHER ONE SE TO E OF 65W. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE AND S PORTIONS IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE E-SE AT 20 KT. WINDS ARE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE NE-E 10-15 KT E OF 72W...AND SE-S 15-20 KT W OF 72W. LARGE SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE IN A N SWELL ARE EVIDENT E OF 69W. HIGH PRES WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED E TO W ALONG 30N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE U.S. ON FRI...AND POSSIBLY PUSH OFF THE SE COAST ON SAT AND STALL BEFORE PUSHING BACK E AS A COLD FRONT ON SUN ONCE THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES TRACKS NE ALONG IT INTO THE SE U.S. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT MAINTAINING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND NE 20-25 KT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 17N TONIGHT...AND NE 20-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH FRI... BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT S OF 14N ON SAT. BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON THU WITH THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-13 FT RANGE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 16 FT WED THROUGH THU. ANOTHER MAIN ISSUE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND ATLC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE LARGE N SWELLS WITH SEAS UP TO 12 TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 14 FT ON WED AS ANOTHER LARGE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATES SWD INTO THE AREA. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME ON FRI...AND INTO SUN AT WHICH TIME THE WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEAS OF 7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN S OF 25N W OF 95W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 201955 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST TUE DEC 20 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REVEAL AN E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF E OF 95W EXCEPT S OF 25N E OF 85W WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE AT 20-25 KT. W OF 95W...A COLD FRONT ENTERED FAR WESTERN WATERS THIS MORNING...AND HAS REACHED FROM SW LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO S-SW AT 15-20 KT...AND BEHIND IT THEY ARE NW-N 15-20 KT. NWS RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF E OF 88W...AND OVER MUCH OF THE N AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT NOW UP TO 8 FT IN THE FAR W PORTION E OF CENTRAL TEXAS PER BUOY 42019 AT 28N95W. BESIDE THE COLD FRONT FEATURE...THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE SHOWS HIGH PRES NOW CONFINED TO E OF 90W. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE WEAK COLD FRONT...OF PACIFIC ORIGIN... IS FORECAST TO MOVE E TO A POSITION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NW TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT E OF S TEXAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARDS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THU PUSHING THE FRONT BACK E AS A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI...FROM NE FLORIDA TO 25N92W THEN STATIONARY TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT...AND FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N89W THEN STATIONARY TO S CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR MASS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. THE STRONG OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IN SHOWING HIGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT...UP TO 14 FT...FOR SAT AND SUN VERSUS EARLIER RUNS WHERE SEAS WERE MUCH LOWER. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW HAVING PUSHED TO FAR EXTREME SE WATERS JUST PAST PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON NWS RADAR FROM SAN JUAN ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS. A HIGH OF 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 30N69W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ...AND ANOTHER ONE SE TO E OF 65W. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE AND S PORTIONS IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE E-SE AT 20 KT. WINDS ARE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE NE-E 10-15 KT E OF 72W...AND SE-S 15-20 KT W OF 72W. LARGE SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE IN A N SWELL ARE EVIDENT E OF 69W. HIGH PRES WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED E TO W ALONG 30N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE U.S. ON FRI...AND POSSIBLY PUSH OFF THE SE COAST ON SAT AND STALL BEFORE PUSHING BACK E AS A COLD FRONT ON SUN ONCE THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES TRACKS NE ALONG IT INTO THE SE U.S. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT MAINTAINING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND NE 20-25 KT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 17N TONIGHT...AND NE 20-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH FRI... BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT S OF 14N ON SAT. BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON THU WITH THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-13 FT RANGE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 16 FT WED THROUGH THU. ANOTHER MAIN ISSUE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND ATLC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE LARGE N SWELLS WITH SEAS UP TO 12 TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 14 FT ON WED AS ANOTHER LARGE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATES SWD INTO THE AREA. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME ON FRI...AND INTO SUN AT WHICH TIME THE WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEAS OF 7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN S OF 25N W OF 95W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE