000 AGXX40 KNHC 191952 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST MON DEC 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REVEAL AN E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE PART S OF 25N WHERE E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING. NWS RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 94W...AND ALSO S OF 25N E OF 85W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT NOW UP TO 8 FT IN THE FAR SE PORTION S OF 25N E OF 85W...AND UP 9 FT OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST PER BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES NOW HAVING MOVED TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE NE TEXAS COAST. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER W TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS NE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST EARLY TUE...AND MOVE E TO A POSITION FROM MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE O THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...AND BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NW TOWARDS THE NE MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COAST WED AND WED NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT NEAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE 12 UTC ECMWF NOW PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARDS S CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON THU PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI...THEN WEAKEN FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT. COLD HIGH PRES WILL USHER IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF ABOUT 20 KT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG 21N E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. A HIGH 1030 MB HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. IS BUILDING E AND SE ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION IS ALLOWING FOR NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO EXIST N OF 27N...AND N-NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...AND NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT S OF 27N W OF 75W. LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE E-SE OF 10-15 KT ARE N OF 27N W OF 75W. LARGE SEAS IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE IN A N SWELL ARE EVIDENT E OF 69W. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED NIGHT NEAR 20N. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 30N WED THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE U.S. ON FRI...AND POSSIBLY PUSH OFF THE SE COAST SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT MAINTAINING NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALREADY UNDER WAY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND FAR SW PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ...ESPECIALLY LONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 15 FT WED. ANOTHER MAIN ISSUE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND ATLC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE LARGE N SWELLS UP TO 10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF LARGE N SWELLS WILL BE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT WED THROUGH FRI...AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE FRI INTO SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE