000 AGXX40 KNHC 190555 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE SW COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY TODAY. SE RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS. NE-E 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SE ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUPPORTING SE-S 20-25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS E 20-25 KT IN THE FL STRAITS BY SUNSET TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUE...AND STALL FROM THE EXTREME W FL PANHANDLE TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL DRIFT NW REACHING NEAR THE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE THU JUST IN TIME FOR A SECOND NLY SURGE TO PUSH THE FRONT E AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN REACHING FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND SUNRISE FRI...THEN DRIFTING E THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL REACH FROM 24N55W TO N HISPANIOLA AROUND SUNSET TODAY THEN WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 55W AND 76W ON TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE NE FL COAST LATER TODAY AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND INCREASING OFF THE NE FL COAST EARLY WED IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH BUT STALL OVER INTERIOR GA COAST FROM AROUND SUNRISE THU THROUGH FRI. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST WED-FRI WITH NE-E WINDS AT 20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 25N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NE-E FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ETHE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST. NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY A PROBLEM OVER E HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 65W-55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON