000
AGXX40 KNHC 180623
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 25N FROM FL TO THE W 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER WATERS E OF 
92W TODAY...BUT FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF AS 
A NW-SE TROUGH FROM SE TX TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH 
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE REMNANTS MOVING W INLAND N 
MEXICO BY SUNRISE MON AS SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP W OF 92W. BY 
LATE MON SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE GULF 
WITH SE WINDS FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS 
EARLY MON...AND E 20-25 KT IN THE FL STRAITS LATE MON. THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUE...AND 
MOVE E TO A POSITION FROM MS DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF 
CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM FL PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF 
CAMPECHE LATE WED. AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN EARLY THU 
REMNANTS OF THIS SECOND FRONT WILL DRIFT NW. A SECONDARY NLY 
SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT E AGAIN THU NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 27N69W WITH RIDGE E-W ALONG 27N. THE 
RIDGE WILL MOVE S TO ALONG 24N LATE TODAY...THEN RETRACT E OF 
AREA LATE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 
31N74W TO CENTRAL FL...TO CONTINUE E REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES 
FRONT WILL CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND WITH ACCOMPANYING WINDS 
REACHING GALE FORCE EITHER SIDE OF FRONT OVER THE ATLC WATERS N
OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 61W LATE TODAY...AND SHIFTING E OF 55W
LATE MON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 
22N55W TO HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA MON NIGHT. BY THEN SLY RETURN 
FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE NE FL COAST...SPREADING E ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS TUE...AND INCREASING OFF THE NE FL COAST WED IN 
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRIEFLY STALLS ALONG THE GA COAST 
AROUND SUNRISE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT TILL A SECONDARY SURGE 
PUSHES IT E AGAIN ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NE FLOW ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON. BY THEN SE 
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ELY FLOW WILL 
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NW OF COLOMBIA. A 
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM LATE MON THROUGH WED WITH PRECIP 
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY A PROBLEM OVER E HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT 
INTO TUE. STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT 
EXCEPT DIMINISHING SOME OVER NW CARIBBEAN.

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

.SW N ATLC...
.GALE WARNING N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-55W.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON