000 AGXX40 KNHC 171958 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA...BOTH BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ...REVEAL A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W SW TO 27N90W TO 27N95W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND DROPS S TO 21N96W AND WNW TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 6 NM ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. RADAR DATA SHOWS AREAS OF RAIN AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS REACHES THE FAR SE GULF ON SUN...WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION WILL LAG BEHIND OVER THE WESTERN GULF. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND WEAKEN. BY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM NE TO E OVER THE NW PORTION...AND FURTHER SHIFT TO SE EARLY SUN NIGHT. BY LATE MON SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST EARLY TUE...AND MOVE E TO A POSITION FROM MS DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNSET TUE. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE A REPETITION OF THE PRESENT...LEADING TO THIS FRONT ALSO STALLING AS IT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THU. STRONG COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT INCREASING NLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN GULF WATERS ON THU...WITH A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THERE WITH SEAS BUILDING QUITE RAPIDLY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD LATE THU WITH THE APPROACH THE A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WILL MENTION GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT OVER A PROTON OF THE SW GULF FOR LATE THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE MAP HAS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER AT 28N74W WITH A RIDGE E TO NEAR 69W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS...AND OVER THE WATERS E OF THOSE ISLANDS. SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT IN N SWELLS ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41046 AT 24N68W AND 41043 AT 21N65W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO JUST E OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE BAHAMA CHANNEL ON SUN...FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT SUNRISE MON...FROM 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT SUNSET MON...AND WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 21N LATE TUE. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DIMINISHING OVER THE NW WATERS MON...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE...AND INCREASING OFF THE NE FL COAST WED IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N75W TO NE FLORIDA BY LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT MAINTAINING NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER MAIN ISSUE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MAINLY N OF 16N WILL BE LARGE N SWELLS UP TO 13 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ089...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT N OF 23N LATE THU... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE