000 AGXX40 KNHC 170557 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO A VERY WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AT 27N95W TO 22N97W WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS TODAY...BUT STALL OVER THE WATERS W OF 90W. THESE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH LATE SUN. BY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM NE TO E OVER THE NW PORTION...AND FURTHER SHIFT TO SE EARLY SUN NIGHT. BY LATE MON SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUE...AND MOVE E TO A POSITION FROM MS DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNSET TUE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR E THIS SECOND FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...AND STALL THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N72W WITH RIDGE E-W ALONG 28.5W TO THE FL E COAST. NE-E WINDS AT 15-20 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT CONTINUE E OF THE BAHAMAS TO 55W ALONG THE SE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE S TO ALONG 27N AT SUNSET TODAY...AND BECOME ORIENTATED E TO W ALONG 25N SUN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO THE BAHAMA CHANNEL ON SUN...FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT SUNRISE MON...FROM 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT SUNSET MON...AND WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 21N LATE TUE. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DIMINISHING OVER THE NW WATERS MON...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE...AND INCREASING OFF THE NE FL COAST WED IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST LATE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT HAVE S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. LARGE N SWELLS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF 14N WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES STRAIGHTENS N OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON