000 AGXX40 KNHC 150645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE THE GULF FROM HIGH PRES WELL NE OF THE AREA OVER THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF AS SAMPLED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE SW GULF S OF 22N. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE S TO OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF ALONG THE COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS BORDERLINE REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 27N96W TO 22N96W BY FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH SAT...DISSIPATING SUN. EXPECT A BRIEF SURGE OF 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE CAROLINAS LATE SUN THROUGH MON...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS BY LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SPREADING TO ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH SAGS TO THE S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...WITH NE SWELL OF 10-11 FT IMPACTING THE ATLC PASSAGES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EXTENDING FROM 22N58W TO THE NE TIP OF PUERTO RICO. N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AS REPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS NW OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...ALONG WITH 10 FT SEAS AS OBSERVED BY A NDBC BUOY IN THE FAR NW PORTION. THE FRONT WILL REACH TO ALONG 15N BY FRI NIGHT WHILE DEGENERATING INTO A SHEARLINE. THE SHEARLINE WILL DISSIPATE SAT INTO SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ACROSS THE ZONE...HOWEVER NE SWELL TO 11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ...SUBSIDING TO 7-9 FT BY MON. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA WITH N-NE 20 KT WINDS... LOCALLY TO 25 KT...ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAPTURED BY RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES. NE SWELL OF 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS EXCEPT 5-8 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY SETTLING TO ALONG 31N BY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE N OF 25N WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 25N BY FRI. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE S REACHING TO ALONG 27N LATE SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS S OF 31N. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SUN MORNING...THEN FROM 25N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING WHILE WEAKENING...DISSIPATING MON AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE FRONT DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY