000 AGXX40 KNHC 140652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF AS SHOWN BY RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. STRONGER WINDS ARE NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 25 KT WERE SAMPLED BY ASCAT...AS WELL IS IN THE FAR NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON THU SLIDING OFF THE COAST INTO THE NW GULF LATE THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO FRI MORNING WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT...DISSIPATING ON SAT. NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ESTABLISHING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE NW GULF AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SAT AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SE INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A LENGTHENING NE-E FETCH SETTING UP ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT THERE WEAKENS. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP JUST N OF PANAMA THU WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND FURTHER AIDING THE MAINTENANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E TO 55W THROUGH TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT IN NE SWELL. THE FRONT WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO 15N BY LATE FRI WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE WHILE STALLING OUT. STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE MOVES SLOWLY SE. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N59W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRESENT. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. SEAS ARE UP TO 12-14 FT IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AS REPORTED BY SHIPS AND BUOYS AT THE TAIL END OF A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH ZONE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE BREACHING 31N THU NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 25N THU THROUGH SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE N LATE SAT PUSHING THE HIGH TO ALONG 26N BY SUN MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SUN MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT THEN REACHES FROM 26N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUN WHILE WEAKENING. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY