000
AGXX40 KNHC 130628
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
128 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA WITH MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF AS INDICATED BY A 0238 
UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE SE 
THROUGH MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AT 
FIRST IN THE NW GULF...THEN SPREADING TO ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF 
WATERS BY WED NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SE GULF 
NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT 
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST 
FROM THE NW ON THU. THE LATEST GFS RUN NOW PUSHES THE GULF INTO
THE NW GULF OFFSHORE WATERS...STALLING OUT AND DISSIPATING OVER 
THE W GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL 
WATERS BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT. WILL 
CARRY A BLEND OF THOSE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
TO THE N AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROF WHICH 
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF PANAMA. A 0236 UTC 
ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...MODERATE 
TO FRESH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E OF 
THERE. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK TO THE S CLOSER TO THE 
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR FRESH WINDS TO SPREAD TO 
ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN WATERS...INCREASING TO STRONG 
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BY MID-WEEK FURTHER HELPING TO ENHANCE THE FRESH 
TO STRONG NE-E WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE 
NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THERE AS A
RESULT.

MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE FAR 
NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E
TO 55W BY LATE WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. 
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION LATE WED NIGHT WITH 
FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT IN NE 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO 14N BY LATE FRI WHERE 
IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE WHILE STALLING 
OUT.

SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 30N64W TO 26N65W TO 20N63W. LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO 
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 70W AS 
CAPTURED BY A RECENT 0238 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS ARE UP TO 12-13 
FT IN THE NE PORTION BETWEEN 70W AND THE TROUGH WITH NDBC BUOY 
41047 NEAR 27N72W REPORTING 11 FT SEAS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT 
WITH THE TROUGH TAKING ON COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT 
RETREATS BACK TO THE E OF THE AREA. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE 
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BY TONIGHT...WEAKENING IN THE NORTHERN 
PORTION WED AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE ZONE MOVES CLOSER TO 31N. THE 
HIGH WILL SETTLE TO ALONG 31N THU INTO FRI WITH LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 
25N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 25N WHERE NE SWELL 
TO 11 FT WILL LINGER...IMPACTING THE NORTHERN COASTS OF 
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

.SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY