000 AGXX40 KNHC 121725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM EST MON DEC 12 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AS THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS SE OVER THE ATLC THE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WATERS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WED...AND COVER ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WED NIGHT. A BAND OF ELY 15-20 KT WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE TX COAST...WITH A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED NE-E 20-25 KT ALONG THE NW CUBAN COAST. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSES E TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS THU AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSING FURTHER E OVER THE GULF WATERS AND STALLING FROM SW LA TO SE TX AROUND SUNRISE FRI. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MOVE BACK W LATE FRI REACHING THE TX COAST AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE SAT...THEN WELL INLAND LATE SAT AS SE RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION. NE 15-20 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY EACH EVENING ALONG THE NEW YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME ORIENTATED N-S OVER THE NE FL COAST. NE-E WINDS INCREASED TO A MINIMAL GALE LAST NIGHT IN THE WATERS FROM 28N-31N W OF 74W...BUT DIMINISHED TO 25-30 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS N-S ALONG ROUGHLY 65W...AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TONIGHT BEFORE A REINFORCING N SURGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH E AGAIN AS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AROUND SUNRISE TUE. THIS FRONT WILL AMPLIFY S OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WED WITH THE SHARP SW TO NW WIND SHIFT ADVANCING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF 15N AND FINALLY MOVING E OF 55W LATE THU. NE LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT DOMINATE THE ATLC W OF THE TROUGH...AND ALSO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W...WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH WED...THEN DIMINISH OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL THU. THE INCREASING NE FLOW WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FRI. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO W-E ALONG 28N SAT WITH THE NE WINDS RELAXING OVER THE ATLC S OF 25N...BUT MAINTAINING NE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF 15N THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON