000 AGXX40 KNHC 120633 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 133 AM EST MON DEC 12 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE OF THE AREA RELAXING NE-E FLOW AND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE NW GULF WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH THESE RETURN FLOW CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF WATERS BY THU AS THE HIGH SINKS TO THE SE. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN A BAND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST THU...STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THU EVENING BEFORE RETREATING BACK INLAND FRI AS THE HIGH NE OF THE AREA MOVES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY TUE NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND BROAD LOWER PRES IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL THEN EXPAND TO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE FOUND IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ...AS WELL AS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SE OF JAMAICA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS CAPTURED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER THERE THOUGH THE WEEK EVENTUALLY MOVING NE OF THE AREA BY FRI. EASTERLY SWELL OF 7-11 FT WILL IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE NE CORNER...WITH A NEW SET OF NE SWELL TO 11 FT PROPAGATING DOWN FROM THE N BY FRI. FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED N OF 17N W OF 58W THU INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE WATERS BETWEEN STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND A 700 NM LONG SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING 65W FROM THE E. RECENT WINDSAT AND HI-RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS N OF 28N W OF 74W WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF 35 KT WIND BARBS. IN ADDITION...NDBC BUOYS 41012 AND 41010 E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 35-37 KT FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS DATA HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 06 THROUGH 18 UTC TODAY WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE GALE WARNING ISSUED BY WFO JACKSONVILLE. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 16 FT UNTIL THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH WITH BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTING 15 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE...NE-E 20-30 KT WINDS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS...EXCEPT 10-15 KT IN THE SE PORTION CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKER. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS 65W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE E WHILE TAKING ON COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE HIGH TO THE N MOVES SE CLOSER TO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO ALONG 30N E OF FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEK REDUCING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 24N...WHERE SEAS TO 11 FT WILL ALSO PERSIST AT THE TAIL END OF A LENGTHY NE FETCH ZONE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY