000 AGXX40 KNHC 111747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT E RELAXING THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ALLOWING SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE AFTERNOON...WITH THESE RETURN FLOW CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AT 15 TO 20 KT...WED NIGHT INTO THU ALONG A BAND FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE TX COAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PROGRESSES E ACROSS CENTRAL TX. LATEST GUIDANCE STALLS THIS NEXT FRONT OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS THU NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS DRIFTING W AND FURTHER INLAND FRI. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL ATLC... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY TONIGHT AS NE WINDS ALREADY BRIDGE ITS BOUNDARY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL REMNANTS MAY DRIFT W TO ALONG THE NE FL COAST MON WITH A NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N65W TO 19N60W. THE TROUGH WILL MEANDER N-S BETWEEN 64W AND 66W THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEREAFTER A REINFORCING N SURGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH E AGAIN EARLY TUE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT...THUS ADJUSTED WORDING FROM TROUGH TO FRONT IN THIS MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE. THIS FRONT WILL AMPLIFY S OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WED WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 19N55W EARLY THU. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA...AN AREA OF ENHANCED N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS AND N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT...SPREADING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE WED...AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE NE WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON