000 AGXX40 KNHC 110653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF THE GULF OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF 22N...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 22N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS REMAIN 8-10 FT IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS REPORTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE E OVER THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE W GULF LATE TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE THU WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A MAINLY BROAD AND WEAK PRES PATTER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER SAMPLINGS INDICATING MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTING IN FRESH TO EVENTUALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...EXPANDING INTO THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO THE S...CLOSER TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE TAIL END OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN WILL RETREAT BACK INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE OFFSHORE ZONE...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED EASTERLY SWELL WILL MANAGE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE WEEK WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS E OF FLORIDA FROM NEAR 31N73W TO 28N78W...TURNING S AND BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT EXTENDS TO GRAND BAHAMA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FILLING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-13 FT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AT THE TAIL END OF A HEALTHY NE FETCH ZONE BY TONIGHT. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BLEED ACROSS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE PORTION BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS 65W FROM THE E MON MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ALONG 65W MON EVENING...RETREATING BACK TO THE E TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS MOVES SE. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG 31N BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NE PORTION...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE. ALSO...AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BREACH TO THE W ACROSS 55W THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE W...PRIOR TO WEAKENING BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE AFTERNOON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY