000 AGXX40 KNHC 091834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EST FRI DEC 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS ERODING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS IN THE E GULF AND E-SE WINDS IN THE W GULF ARE IN PLACE ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN N OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT SOUTH INTO THE GULF. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND THEN LINGER NEAR THE COAST OVER THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...WITH FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUN THROUGH TUE WHILE THE TROUGH DISSIPATES ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A 1448 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED N-NE 20 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERALLY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES...A BROAD AND WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SUN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT TO 20 KT ALONG THE EASTERN NICARAGUA COAST AS WELL AS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE U.S. MID ATLANTIC STATES...RESULTING IN FRESH NE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES RESULTING IN CONTINUED RAINFALL AND THE LINGERING CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM NEAR 19N55W TO GUADELOUPE. A 1306 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE 20-25 KT WINDS N OF THE TROUGH...AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT WERE REPORTED FROM SHIP DPJK NEAR 20N65W AT 1800 UTC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TAKING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH IT AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EASTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE NE CORNER. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N70W TO 22N78W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT NW OF THE FRONT...WHILE 15-20 KT NE WINDS WERE NOTED BY THE 1446 UTC AND 1304 UTC ASCAT PASSES AS WELL AS BY MULTIPLE SHIPS AND BUOYS IN THE SE PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE ZONE AS WELL AS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AND EXTENDING NE THROUGH 22N45W TO 31N43Q. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT TODAY INTO SAT...THEN WILL MERGE WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT OFF THE NE FL COAST AT THE TAIL END OF A HEALTHY NE FETCH ZONE. THE NEW FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT E OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUN... WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE E PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE LATE SUN AND MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN E-SE SWELL BEHIND IT. THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE LATEST FRONT LATE MON...AND THE FEATURES WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/LEWITSKY