000 AGXX40 KNHC 090648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST FRI DEC 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...NE-E IN THE E GULF AND E-SE IN THE W GULF. HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN N OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN...WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THEN LINGERS NEAR THE COAST OVER THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...WITH NE-E 20 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUN THROUGH TUE WHILE THE TROUGH DISSIPATES ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A 0218 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED N-NE 20 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT WITH NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES A BROAD AND WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SUN WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT TO 20 KT ALONG THE EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA COASTS...AS WELL AS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN FRESH 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THAT AREA AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES RESULTING IN CONTINUED RAINFALL AND THE LINGERING CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM NEAR 19N55W TO 14N61W. A 0038 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS NW OF THE TROUGH...AND 11 FT SEAS ARE REPORTED FROM A NDBC BUOY NEAR 22N. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TAKING THE STRONGEST WINDS AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH IT. EASTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE NE CORNER. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N69W TO 23N80W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT NW OF THE FRONT...WHILE 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES IN THE SE PORTION WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT TODAY INTO SAT...THEN WILL MERGE WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT. EXPECT 20-25 KT NE WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT AT THE TAIL END OF A HEALTHY NE FETCH ZONE. THE NEW FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT E OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUN... WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE E PORTION LATE SUN AND MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT IN E-SE SWELL BEHIND IT. THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE LATEST FRONT LATE MON...AND THE FEATURES WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY