000 AGXX40 KNHC 061919 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE 1548 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO 30 KT NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY...AND PROVIDE A REINFORCING PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...AND MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATE WED. THE REINFORCING PUSH WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WED LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N AND W OF 95W. IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 13-15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS THE FRONT EXITS THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT...AND FRESHEN WINDS OVER THE GULF SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY N OF 18N... INCLUDING ALSO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WINDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU WITH A FRESHENING OF NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORECAST INDICATES WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE N OF 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. THIS FRESH TO STRONG FLOW IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FT WITH NE SWELL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE...TO BELOW 10 FT BY THU. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU MORNING... THEN FROM 30N68W TO EASTERN CUBA THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH FRI. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE W FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 95W. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR