000 AGXX40 KNHC 050631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON DEC 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STARTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND IS NOW PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST BUOY...CMAN...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EWD THROUGH TUE INTO WED. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL HELP PUSH THE FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF THU AND SE OF THE AREA BY LATE THU/EARLY FRI. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THE BEST CAA...AND RESULTING STRONGEST WINDS...ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE WED INTO THU. HAVE BACKED OFF MENTION OF GALE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS TO REACH NEAR 30 KT OVER THE SE GULF DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AS INDICATED BY LATEST 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN SEAS TO 8 AS INDICATED BY RECENT BUOY DATA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IN TURN DIMINISH THE WINDS BY TUE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU EVENING AND FRI WITH A FRESHENING OF NLY WINDS. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE FAR W TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR E CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A RESULT OF A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE SHIFTS E TODAY AND TUE...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS FAVORS A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY LATE TUE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. GIVEN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WILL REMAIN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 1037 MB HAS SHIFTED N OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST E OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES HAS FURTHER TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NW OF THE TROUGH...AND THE MOST RECENT 0202 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED 30 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. WITH A LOW BIAS OF THE ASCAT DERIVED WINDS...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE ARE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA...AND SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE OFFSHORE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST JASON ALTIMETER PASS ALSO INDICATES SEAS TO 16 FT AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STRONG NE WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH WILL START TO WEAKEN TODAY...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE...TO BELOW 10 FT THU. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE WED/EARLY THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE COAST THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT THU AND FRI AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRI NIGHT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 26N E OF 69W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL