000 AGXX40 KNHC 041913 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST BUOY...CMAN...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC SE RETURN FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. THE 1200 UTC SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF REPORTED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER DUE TO THE STRONG FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN. THIS IN TURN WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS DIMINISHING THE WINDS TONIGHT AND MON. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON WITH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON NIGHT AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EWD THROUGH TUE INTO WED UNTIL A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS FOR THE FRONT TO SWEEP EWD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF THU AND SE OF THE AREA EARLY FRI. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET APPEAR SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WHILE THE NOGAPS DEPICTS A FLATTER AND WEAKER TROUGH. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARD THE FIRST SUITE OF MODELS. ACCORDINGLY THE BEST CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS...POSSIBLY GALES IN THE SW GULF HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE WED AND THU. WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF ON FRI WITH HIGH PRESS BUILDING IN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AS INDICATED BY A 1452 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT AS INDICATED BY RECENT BUOY DATA AND REFLECTED IN THE 1200 UTC SEAS STATE ANALYSIS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IN TURN DIMINISH THE WINDS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU EVENING AND FRI WITH A FRESHENING OF NLY WINDS TO 20 LOCALLY 25 KT. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE FAR W TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR E CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE SHIFTS E MON AND TUE...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS/NOGAPS FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY LATE TUE THROUGH THU WITH THE NOGAPS DEVELOPING A GALE CENTER BY LATE THU. GIVEN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NOGAPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AND HAVE DEPICTED A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST GRAPHICS THROUGH 72 HOURS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS MAINTAINING STRONG TO NEAR GALE SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN 1120 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 14-15 FT NEAR 27N72W DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH MON AND TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE WED/EARLY THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE COAST THU AFTERNOON THE FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY EWD OVERNIGHT THU AND FRI AND EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 22N W OF 95W LATE WED AND THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB