000 AGXX40 KNHC 040657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW JERSEY HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST BUOY...CMAN...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS DIMINISHING THE WINDS THROUGH MON. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO RETREAT EASTWARD MONDAY MORNING ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE SW LOUISIANA COAST TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN JUST E OF THE AREA LATE WED/EARLY THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF TUE AND WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT AS INDICATED BY RECENT BUOY AND ALTIMETER PASSES. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IN TURN DIMINISH THE WINDS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN EARLY THU WITH ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE FAR W TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR E CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE SHIFTS E EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC FOR MON THROUGH THU...BUT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY TUE. AS THIS APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE WITH THE GFS...WILL REMAIN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW JERSEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS MAINTAINING STRONG TO NEAR GALE SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS TO 13 FT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AS A RESULT OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE WED/EARLY THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE COAST THU AFTERNOON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF 95W TUE AND WED... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL