000 AGXX40 KNHC 022006 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SE U.S. SW ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF. HIGH PRES IS ALSO PRONOUNCED ALOFT AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TO THE W OF THE SURFACE RIDGE 20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED IN RESPONSE TO FAST DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. AND NW MEXICO. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE REVEALING THESE WIND SPEEDS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THESE WINDS ARE IN PLACE. BUOY REPORTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOW LIGHTER E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SRN WATERS S OF ABOUT 25N E OF 90W WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NE-E 20 KT WINDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TO FOR THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE FAR NE GULF BY MON EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES TO EASTERN TEXAS ON SUN. SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 25N ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME TO 15-20 KT ON SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON SUN BEFORE MOVING OFF THAT COAST SUN NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MON...FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N92W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO A PSN FROM SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE WED. STRONG OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO MATERIALIZE IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF W OF ABOUT 95W ON TUE AND S OF 26N. MODEL ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITIES TODAY ARE MUCH HIGHER FOR THAT PORTION OF THE GULF SO INTRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS FOR W OF 95W FOR TUE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS LINGERING IN THE FAR SW GULF ZONE INTO EARLY WED. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 8-11 FT ON MON IN THE NW GULF S OF 26N...AND UP TO 10-17 FT TUE IN THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRACTURED BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH...COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND MINIMAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEAL NE 15 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONGER N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS W OF 78W TO 85W ...AND LIGHTER NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N OF 19N WHERE SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT. A TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W DRIFTING W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AMPLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 62.5W. THE TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO THE E OF A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS SECOND MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SWINGS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND FAR WESTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BRING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THOSE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN SUN THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO EXIST OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N64W TO 21N69W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE TROUGH. LIGHTER E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTED FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DISSIPATION WILL BE FURTHER ACCELERATED AS A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE HIGH PRES AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN MON THROUGH WED AS THE ABOVE DESCRIBED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COASTS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BEFORE THEN...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE STRONG HIGH WILL BRING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15-20 KT MON AND TUE...AND TO E AT 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED E OF THE THE BAHAMAS. WINDS BECOME S-SW 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 FT NE AND E OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 FT LATE MON THROUGH WED AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE S OF 26N W OF 95W... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE W OF 95W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. 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