000 AGXX40 KNHC 291854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS YESTERDAY. RECENT ASCAT PASSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS INDICATE THAT W-NW 15-20 KT STILL EXIST IN THE E GULF WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS IN THE W GULF. LINGERING NW SWELL GENERATED BY STRONGER WINDS DURING THE PREVIOUS 24-48 HOURS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY WED. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SAT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 13N84W AND A 1454 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE E COAST OF HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR 18N82.5W REPORTED 13 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE E PRIOR TO STALLING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE WED THROUGH FRI...DISSIPATING SAT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT W OF THE SHEAR LINE THROUGH THU WITH THE FEATURE DISSIPATING BY THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN FRI AND SAT. A TROUGH IS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC REACHING FROM 21N60W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO 10N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE SOUTHWARD. THIS PERSISTENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH WEAK LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SE 20-30 KT WINDS WILL OCCUR E OF THIS LOW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS IN THE W PORTION REACHING FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA. IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE W-NW 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH 10-15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS PRECEDE THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 25N71W EARLY WED...MOVING E OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI AND SAT. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN INCREASED NE-E WINDS...20-25 KT BY SAT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT IN NE SWELL. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY