000 AGXX40 KNHC 290732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF BASIN BUT FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE STILL AFFECT GULF E OF 90W WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRES 1021 MB BUILDS OVER SW GULF ZONE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE DOMINATING FLOW W OF 90W. HIGH PRES MERGES WITH LARGER RIDGE FORMED OVER TEXAS AND DRIFT E ACROSS SOUTHERN BELT STATES BRINGING MODERATE E TO NE BREEZE ACROSS BASIN THROUGH LATE THU. DEEP LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS LATE FRI AND SAT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW W OF 95W TO A STRONG BREEZE WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO 10 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG COLD FRONT FROM S CENTRAL CUBA TO NE TIP OF NICARAGUA BRINGS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS AND SEAS TO 12-14 FT WITHIN A 240 NM SWATH W OF BOUNDARY. FRONT CONTINUES E AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO DEEP IN SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WHERE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATE WED AND THU. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ALONG EASTERN NICARAGUAN COAST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FETCH MAY RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA LATER THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE...TROUGH ALONG 63W-64W EXTENDING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS DRIFTING NE TUE AND WED EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EMBEDDED WEAK LOW PRES CENTER LATE TUE OR WED. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS E OF TROUGH AT GALE FORCE WHILE NAM REMAINS TAMER...SLOWER AND FURTHER NW. DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...FORECAST FALLS SHORT OF GALE FORCE...BUT BUILDS SEAS TO 15 FT BASED ON LONG FETCH UPWIND OF LOW PRES CENTER. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES N OF AREA HAS MOVED NE WEAKENING E TO A MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG S RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT NOTED N OF 27N W OF 75W. FRONT REACH FROM 31N75W TO E CUBA LATE TODAY...THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OF BASIN LATE WED...DISSIPATING OR MERGING WITH TROUGH ALONG 65W THU AND FRI. FRONT LOSES PUNCH QUICKLY WITH ONLY MODERATE N-NW WINDS BEHIND IT. HIGH PRES BUILD BEHIND FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES