000 AGXX40 KNHC 281842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A RECENT 1514 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED W-NW 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS PRECEDE THE FRONT ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DATA REMAINS NIL. SEAS REMAIN UP TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL ALTHOUGH THEY ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE WITH NDBC BUOYS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF INDICATING A DOWNWARD TREND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW WEAKER FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN THE W GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. A HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS...AND AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT SAMPLED 12 FT SEAS E OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE WED THROUGH FRI WITH 20-30 KT WINDS W OF IT AND 10-15 KT TO THE E. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUAN COASTS. THIS PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FETCH MAY RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA LATER THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N67W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE N-NE THROUGH THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS E OF THE TROUGH...WITH STRONGER LOW PRES DIAGNOSED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH. THE LATEST RUN HAS HOWEVER BACKED OFF A BIT...AND NO LONGER SHOWS A LOW DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NE WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS AS CAPTURED BY 1332 UTC AND 1514 UTC ASCAT PASSES. 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT... REACHING FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY TUE...THEN WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT STRETCHES FROM 31N71W TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY WED...DISSIPATING OR MERGING WITH A TROUGH TO THE E ALONG 65W THU AND FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N/28N...ALTHOUGH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO 10-15 KT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION... PERIODICALLY INCREASING NE WINDS TO 15-20 KT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY