000
AGXX40 KNHC 280659
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 21N87W MOVE OUT OF AREA 
TONIGHT.  VERIFIED GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND FRONT DIMINISHED 
THROUGH LAST NIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT 
MAINTAINING WARNINGS ADDITIONAL SIX HOURS.  REPORTED SEAS WERE  
UP TO 23 FT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH AS FRONT PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER SW N ATLC AND WEAK 
TROUGH ALONG 65W RESULTS IN FRESH TRADES ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF 
BASIN TODAY.  TRADES DIMINISH TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
FROM THE NW FORCING HIGH PRES FURTHER E.  FRONT MOVE INTO NW 
ZONE TONIGHT AND REACH FROM 22N81W TO NE TIP OF NICARAGUA EARLY 
TONIGHT THEN FROM W CUBA TO 15N78W LATE TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL 
AND BECOME DIFFUSE.  STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED UP AGAINST NICARAGUA E COAST. MEANWHILE 
...TROUGH IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W FROM PUERTO RICO TO 
BONAIRE MAINTAINS NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION ACROSS LEEWARD ISLANDS.  TROUGH DRIFTS NE TODAY AND 
WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE TUE.  
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH GFS MOST 
AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTH AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST IN TIMING AND THE 
NAM THE WESTERNMOST IN POSITION...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE 
LOW PRES FORMING IN THIS GENERAL AREA.  FORECAST BLENDS GFS 
POSITION WITH NAM INTENSITY.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
HIGH PRES 1027 MB OFF NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  FRESH TO STRONG E-SE BREEZE AHEAD OF STRONG 
COLD FRONT APPROACHING ACROSS FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT 
DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED E BY FRONT.  MODERATE N TO 
NW BREEZE BEHIND FRONT AS IT REACHES FROM 31N73W TO W CUBA LATE 
TUE...WEAKEN AND DISSIPATES BY LATE WED.  NEW HIGH PRES BUILD 
BEHIND FRONT WITH N-NE WINDS ACROSS BASIN THROUGH FRI.

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GALE WARNING S OF 23N W OF 94W...GMZ082.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

.SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES