000 AGXX40 KNHC 270814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 22N98W SWEEPS WESTERN HALF OF GULF TODAY AND REACH FROM W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. GALE FORCE N WINDS BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH 40-45 KT AND BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 20-22 FT IN SW GULF ZONE. GFS AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT...WHILE NAM REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT THEY BRING WINDS TO 40 KT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AND E OF GULF BY LATE MON. HIGH PRES BUILD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TUE THROUGH THU AND EXTEND DEEP INTO WESTERN HALF OF GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NW BREEZE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES 1027 MB OFF MID ATLC SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1007 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH IN SW CARIBBEAN RESULTS IN FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS BASIN TODAY THROUGH MON. STRONG COLD FRONT FORCES RIDGE E AS IT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS OVER WESTERN HALF OF BASIN. WEAK TROUGH IN E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DRIFT E THROUGH TUE WHILE EXTENDING NE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG TROUGH AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WITH A 1003 MB CENTER BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 15 FT SEAS TO N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS STRONG LOW GIVEN THE CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS ENDORSING THIS SOLUTION. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB OFF MID ATLC SEABOARD MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF BASIN. WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE IS FORCED E BY INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER SE TO S AND STRENGTHEN TO 30 KT LATE MON N OF 28N W OF 77W BUT WEAKEN ONCE THE COLD FRONT ENTER BASIN BRINGING MODERATE NW WINDS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 93W...GMZ082 .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES