000 AGXX40 KNHC 261851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF NEAR 25N96W. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT WITH BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE 34 KT PROBABILITIES AT 100 PERCENT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN MORNING...FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON MORNING...THEN MOVING E OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 27N W OF 93W BEGINNING 06 UTC SUN THROUGH 12 UTC MON...WITH WINDS OF 30-45 KT EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. SEAS MAY BUILD TO UP TO 21 FT IN THE SW GULF WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH IS IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE EXTENDING NE INTO THE FAR TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH AND THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW...DEVELOPING AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITH RESULTANT WAVEWATCH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT...LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS MAINLY 20 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT...REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN MON WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DEGENERATE INTO EITHER A TROUGH OR SHEAR LINE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT... FILTERING S TO ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA BY TUE AND WED. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES IS JUST N OF THE AREA WITH A PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NDBC BUOYS INDICATE FRESH NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NW PORTION SUN NIGHT AND MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE MON EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED TROUGH (REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY) WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE E PORTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE MORNING...THEN WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND STALL FROM NEAR 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED MORNING...MERGING WITH THE TROUGH BY THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 28N... WITH FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 27N W OF 93W...GMZ080-082 .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY