000 AGXX40 KNHC 240741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR THE CITY OF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF. A 0410 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 25 KT NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL START TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER S OVER THE EASTERN GULF REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF SAT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF 30 TO 50 PER CENT BY THAT TIME TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF. ECMWF...NOGAPS AND UKMET STILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE OVER THE NW GULF. FORECAST WILL FAVOR GFS AND ENSEMBLES AND WILL INTRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WORDING FOR THE NW GULF IN ADDITION TO SW GULF. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL SHOWING STORM CONDITIONS OFF VERACRUZ LATE SAT NIGHT TO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS HAS DECREASED FROM EARLIER RUNS. WILL HOLD 40 KT WORDING IN FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF BY LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND SHIFT SE REACHING FROM 31N62W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW TO N FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND START TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATE FRI...EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS N OF THE FRONT VEER MORE NE AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH LATE SAT IN THE SAME AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND E OF N FLORIDA INCREASE AND VEER S TO SW BY SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON MORNING...AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE MON. FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...ASCAT PASS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0230 UTC...INCLUDING 20 KT E WINDS OVER THE NORTHER CARIBBEAN...AND 20 KT N FLOW DOWN THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF PANAMA...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE LOW AS AN ELONGATED FEATURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH FRI. THE LOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS A DISTINCT FEATURE SAT INTO SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN INTO MON...BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GFS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT BY LATE MON FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW GULF W OF 95W LATE SAT AND SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN