000 AGXX40 KNHC 231900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO TAMPICO MEXICO WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N93W THU NIGHT. ASCAT PASS AT 1516 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS N OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 88W WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE WESTERN GULF AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. STRONG N WINDS WILL FUNNEL DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. A RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH FRI AND E-SE WINDS WILL AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT STRONG GALE OR MARGINAL STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY SUN. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO 26N80W THU MORNING...AND 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING E OF THE AREA SAT. ASCAT PASS AT 1516 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT TO AROUND 72W. FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE IN PLACE BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH SUN WITH FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... ASCAT PASS AT 1520 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF A WEAK LOW N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N80W. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. NE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS N OF THE AREA. N WINDS WILL FUNNEL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST AND ENHANCE THE AREA OF LOW PRES N OF THE PANAMA CANAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW EMBEDDED IN AN ELONGATED MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW GULF W OF 95W LATE SAT AND SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL