000 AGXX40 KNHC 210712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...SOUTH OF A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THE SE FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN VEER SW AND DIMINISH BY LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING...AND REACH FROM WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N95W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THE COOL DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW N WINDS TO 20 KT TO FUNNEL DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST WED...REACHING VERACRUZ BY WED NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED...AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS DEPRIVING THE FRONT UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THU OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BUT BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE CAROLINAS BY FRI...ALLOWING FRESH SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE NW GULF...AND MAINTAINING FRESH E FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... A 0150 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS PERSISTING E OF 65W. THIS REFLECTS A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN 1027 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 26N53W. BUOYS AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT...LIKELY IN FRESH NE SWELL. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW LIFTING TO THE NE THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE NE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TONIGHT. NE TRADES WILL PERSIST S OF 25N W OF 65W HOWEVER INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E FROM THE CAROLINAS TO BERMUDA. THESE TRADE WILL DIMINISH INTO WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER S TO SW OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY WED...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OFF N FLORIDA WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N65W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE THU...AND FROM 31N55W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...SHIFTING NE BY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0150 UTC...INCLUDING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THAT WERE PUSHING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. DATA FROM BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA SHOWED SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO NE SWELL PUSHING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...AND IS INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED NE SWELL PENETRATING ATLC PASSAGES W OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND NE SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THE 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 18N BY FRI...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN