000 AGXX40 KNHC 190721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TODAY...MAINTAINING FRESH E TRADES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUE WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS WILL APPROACH THE GULF. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING...SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE OTHER MAJOR MODELS WHICH INDICATE THE FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF LAGER TUE NIGHT. FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING STRONG N WINDS PUSHING DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST TO THE SW GULF THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A STALLING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND ALTIMETER OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO E OF BERMUDA...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES E OF THE AREA ALONG ROUGHLY 55W. A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N56W WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS N TO NE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 FT IN THE NE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRES DRIFTS FURTHER TO THE NE INTO THE CENTRAL N ATLC. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... A 1013 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 25N56W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH 20N59W WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT N TO NE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SWELL REACHING 8 FT PENETRATING INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW PRES MOVES NE INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN