000 AGXX40 KNHC 141844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER THE GULF W OF 95W. THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FRESH THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THIS FRONTAL TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N111W THAT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE 14/1200 UTC GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A GENERALLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS LOW IS RATHER PERSISTENT AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE CONSISTENTLY MORE RELIABLE MODELS...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE STRONGER AND SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS FIRST FRONTAL TROUGH. AS FOR THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS ACROSS TEXAS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING...THE FORECAST WILL HEDGE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THIS REINFORCING BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO CREATE A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 81W. THESE FRESH TRADES WILL DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC...DISLODGING THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM NE OF BERMUDA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ZONE...THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF 50W-55W. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE WESTERLY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. SW NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 14/1320 UTC AND 14/1502 UTC ASCAT PASSES ALONG WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM NE OF BERMUDA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE AND TRADES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL WED WHEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASING OVER NW WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT AND OVER SE WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ZONE. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION... THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PASS INTO NW WATERS THU...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THU AND FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER HUFFMAN