000
AGXX40 KNHC 140652
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH S WINDS OVER THE GULF W OF 95W. 
THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FRESH THROUGH TUE WITH A 
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE 
NIGHT/WED. THIS FRONTAL TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT OFF 
LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A 
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. 
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE OTHER 
MODELS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS LOW IS RATHER PERSISTENT AND 
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE CONSISTENTLY MORE RELIABLE 
MODELS...PREFER TO STICK CLOSE TO THE STRONGER AND SLOWER 
GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS FIRST FRONTAL TROUGH. AS FOR THE REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE WED/THU...BOTH 
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION COMPARED 
TO THEIR 13/00Z RUNS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST WILL HEDGE CLOSER 
TO THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO CREATE A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT FRESH NE TRADE WINDS 
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 80W. THESE FRESH TRADES WILL DIMINISH 
THU AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO THE SW N ATLC...DISLODGING THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY 
IN PLACE FROM JUST N OF BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA. OVER THE TROPICAL 
N ATLC ZONE...THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 
THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER 
THE ZONE BEGINNING TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE 
WESTERLY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF 
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST HERE.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
THE 0056 UTC AND 0236 UTC ASCAT PASSES ALONG WITH SEVERAL 
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF 
THE ZONE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF 
BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA. THE RIDGE AND TRADES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
UNTIL WED WHEN AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL SHOVE THE RIDGE 
SOUTHWARD...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASING OVER NW WATERS 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT AND OVER SE WATERS BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC ZONE. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 
ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PASS INTO NW WATERS THU...WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND IT THU AND FRI. 

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

.SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER