000 AGXX40 KNHC 131855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW GULF ON THE W SIDE OF A RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION. FRESH ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH NW GULF WATERS LATE TUE THROUGH WED. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE NW GULF THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF WATERS LATE WED INTO THU...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE BASIN AND A WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY...IS PRODUCING FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH ON THU AS RIDGE TO THE N RETREATS EWD. MEANWHILE...BUOY 41101 AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED FRESH TRADES EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 11N AND 16N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE MON. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE ZONE WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY N OF 19N W OF 60W. EXPECT ALSO NE WINDS 20 KT SHIFTING SE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF 18N E OF 60W. MODERATE TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT IN PRIMARILY E SWELL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM JUST N OF BERMUDA TO N FL. SCATTEROMETER PASSES...BUOYS AND SOME SHIP REPORTS REVEAL THAT MUCH OF THE ZONE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FRESH NE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER WHERE E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE FOUND. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FAR NW WATERS BY WED WITH THE FRONT REACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE THU NIGHT. EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N MON INTO TUE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DIMINISH WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES MOVES FARTHER NE OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER