000
AGXX40 KNHC 130709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE 0258 UTC ASCAT PASS AND NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW GULF ON 
THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
FORECAST STEMMING FROM THE CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT AND EXPECTED TO PHASE 
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE 
NIGHT. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO A STRONGER MID LEVEL CENTER THAN THE 
OTHER MODELS AND IS STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WED AND INTO THE GULF 
AND SW N ATL BY THU. HOWEVER...IT IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAN THE WEAK AND SLOW 00Z ECMWF WITH THE 
COLD FRONT. THE UKMET IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF 
THE FEATURES...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. A 
BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 
THE 0114 UTC AND 0255 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WIDESPREAD 
WIDESPREAD FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES 
N OF THE AREA IS GENERATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN...AND THESE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...BUOY 41101 AND A FEW SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED FRESH TRADES EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...WITH THE 0346 UTC JASON2 
PASS SHOWING SEAS TO 8 FT HERE. THESE CONDITIONS MATCH BETTER 
WITH THE 00Z GFS THAN THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF OR UKMET 
SOLUTIONS...LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE GFS FORECAST FOR THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THIS ZONE TUE THROUGH THU. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO 
BE A WESTERN OUTLIER HERE. WILL STICK WITH THE GFS FORECAST FOR 
NOW.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM 25N65W TO 
EASTERN CUBA...AND A RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM JUST N OF BERMUDA TO N 
FL. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE BEFORE THE NEXT 
FRONT APPROACHES FAR NW WATERS BY WED. THE FORECAST REASONING 
FOR THIS FRONT IS DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE. 
A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND STRONGER GFS WILL BE USED FOR THE 
FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT...WITH THE FRONT REACHING LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE THU NIGHT. FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N MON INTO TUE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND 
DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES FARTHER NE OF THE AREA. 

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

.SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER