000 AGXX40 KNHC 121903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 25N E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE WINDS WERE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE. HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLC. THE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE GULF INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED ON THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. SFC DATA CORROBORATED THESE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TROUGH LATE TUE WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THEN...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE N GULF WATERS LATE WED INTO THU BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECT NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W AND BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PER FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N77W TO EASTERN PANAMA. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. A SMALL BAND OF 15-20 KT TRADES IS OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT. BUOYS 41101 AND 41040 CONFIRM THESE WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF 16N E OF 60W TUE AND WED. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE ZONE WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT N OF 19N W OF 60W. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N53W TO 24N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. FRESH N TO NE WINDS CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT AS SEEN IN THE 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS...BUOY 41047 AND FEW SHIP REPORTS. HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAVE A RIDGE AXIS FROM JUST N OF BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA SUN THROUGH TUE BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FAR NW WATERS BY WED. FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N MON INTO TUE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES FARTHER NE OF THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME FRESH OFF THE N FL COAST LATE TUE/EARLY WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR