000 AGXX40 KNHC 120655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 0320 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH FRESH NE WINDS STILL LINGERING ONLY IN SE WATERS. HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL QUICKLY PASS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED ON THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT TODAY. MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST WHEN A CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO MEXICO. THE 00Z ECMWF IS IS NOW THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS...CMC...AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PHASING THE LOW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/N CENTRAL MEXICO ON MON...A DAY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE UKMET IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A CHANGE FROM ITS MORE PHASED 11/12Z RUN. THIS IS ALSO AGAINST THE OVERALL TREND NOTICED IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD A MORE PHASED SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WILL USE THE GFS AS A GUIDE FOR THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HEDGE TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A COLD FRONT HAS STALL OUT AND IS DISSIPATING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE 0316 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WIDESPREAD 20 KT WINDS N OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND FRESH WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT IS GENERATING A TIGHTER PRES PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS PICKING UP. THESE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A SMALL BAND OF FRESH TRADES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...WITH BUOY 41101 CONFIRMING THE ASCAT WINDS AND BUOY 4040...JUST E OF THE AREA...REPORTING 8 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC. THESE CONDITIONS MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE STRONGER 00Z GFS THAN THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF. THIS LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE AREA FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA...WITH FRESH N TO NE WINDS FOUND PRIMARILY WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT AS SEEN IN THE 0138 UTC ASCAT PASS. HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND LEAVE A RIDGE AXIS FROM JUST N OF BERMUDA TO N FL SUN THROUGH TUE BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FAR NW WATERS BY WED. THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS FRONT IS DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE. FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N MON INTO TUE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES FARTHER NE OF THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME FRESH OFF THE N FL COAST LATE TUE/EARLY WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER