000 AGXX40 KNHC 110710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...LYING ACROSS SE WATERS THIS MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SW GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SE TX IS GREATEST. THE OBSERVATION STATION AT COATZACOALCOS MEXICO CONTINUED TO REPORT 35 KT WINDS AS OF 0600 UTC. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HERE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTAL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST WHEN A CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS IS BY FAR THE STRONGEST AND SLOWEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF...CMC...AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PHASING THE LOW WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/N CENTRAL MEXICO ON MON. THE UKMET IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS. AFRAID TO MOVE COMPLETELY AWAY FROM A STRONGER...MORE CUT OFF FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND THE UKMET HAS A DECENT TRACK RECORD FOR THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 00Z UKMET FROM MON ONWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACCORDING TO SHIPS C6XS8...C6VG7...AND C6FR3. ALL OF THESE SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS OVER 20 KT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRES PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS PREVAILING FROM LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...NE SWELL TO 8 FT IS SUBSIDING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WW3 MAY BE A FOOT OR TWO TOO HIGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM SEAN HAS PASSED N OF THE FORECAST AREA TO 32.2N 67.2W AT 0600 UTC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AROUND SUNRISE. THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS CONTINUES TO CONTRACT AS THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION TIGHTENS AND AS WINDS SE OF THE U.S. COAST HAVE TURNED MORE NW-N AS OPPOSED TO THE PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW THAT WAS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE SE GULF HAS NOW PASSED OFF THE N FL COAST AND STRETCHES ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE. THE 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS AND BUOY 41012 SHOW NW WINDS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUOY 41009 TO THE S REPORTING SEAS AS HIGH AS 9.5 FT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS S OF 26N MON INTO TUE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH OFF THE N FL COAST BY LATE TUE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 23N W OF 94W...GMZ082. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N E OF 73W...AMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER