000 AGXX40 KNHC 101833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST THU NOV 10 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 25N86W TO 18N93W. A 1630 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HI-RES OUTPUT SHOWING EVEN A COUPLE 40-45 KT WIND BARBS S OF 21N W OF 94W. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NDBC BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF ARE 13-15 FT SEAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 41 KT. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 94W THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT...MOVING SE OF THE GULF FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NW TO SE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW-N. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE NE TIP OF COLOMBIA AS CAPTURED BY A 1448 UTC ASCAT PASS. 5-15 KT NE-E WINDS COVER THE WATERS W OF THIS TROUGH WITH E-SE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING COMBINED WITH AN ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CONVECTION FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO WHERE FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE ISLAND. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NWS SAN JUAN OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NW THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING WITH FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT NE-E WINDS PREVAILING FROM LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MIXED N AND E SWELL TO 9 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM SEAN NEAR 30.5N 70.0W 983 MB AT 1 PM EST MOVING NE AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 GUSTS 65 KT. SEAN WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA TO 31.8N 69.0W THIS EVENING WHILE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY...POSSIBLY TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS HAS BEEN CONTRACTING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION TIGHTENS AND AS WINDS SE OF THE U.S. COAST HAVE TURNED MORE NW-N AS OPPOSED TO THE PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW THAT WAS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT QUICKLY REACHING FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING... MOVING E OF THE AREA SAT. 20-30 KT NW-N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 12 FT ALONG 31N ON FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 26N AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS N OF 26N MON INTO TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 94W...GMZ082. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 28N E OF 73W...AMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY