000 AGXX40 KNHC 061949 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN NOV 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE AREA. BUOYS OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS NOW HAVING VEERED TO THE E-SE AT 15-20 KT W OF 87W...AND N-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF 87W. BUOYS INDICATE THAT SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4-7 FT E OF 87W...AND 2-4 FT W OF 87W...EXCEPT W OF 95W WHERE PERSISTENT SE 20 KT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MON AND WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AT THAT TIME. MUCH LIKE RECENT COLD FRONTAL EPISODES...THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO ALONG A PSN FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY FRI AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF LATE FRI. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS (30-40 KT) AND BUILDING SEAS (12-15 FT) OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF ON THU BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRI AS HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEAKENS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REVEAL THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT DROPPED S INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS NEAR 28N69W WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB AT 18 UTC. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE TO 30N65W WHERE A TRIPLE POINT IS NOTED. FROM THERE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW TO 25N65W...THEN SW TO HAITI WHERE IT WEAKENS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST N OF JAMAICA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1430 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SW WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT N OF 27N AND WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 12-18 FT IN NE SWELL. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 73W WHERE NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE EVIDENT...AND ALSO WHERE MUCH LARGER SEAS OF 16-24 FT ARE PRESENT. S OF 27N W OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE NE AT 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN A NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LIGHTER...S-SW 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN A N SWELL. THE RATHER VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE 1007 MB LOW AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS SEEN WEAKENING OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. AS FOR MODEL INTERPRETATIONS...THE LATEST RUNS HAVE COME MORE INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DRIFT IN A GENERAL WNW DIRECTION TUE THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD BY BROAD TROUGH OR FRONT APPROACHING FROM LATER ON THU. THE DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN IN INTENSITY...AND IN HOW FAR W THE LOW TRACKS BEFORE IT GETS PULLED TO THE N. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE LOW NEAR 70W TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD TO THE W WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOWEST OF THE PRES. THE OTHER MODELS... INCLUDING THE REGIONAL NAM...ARE FURTHER TO THE W WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO EARLY THU. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT ONCE THE LOW IS PULLED NORTHWARD ON THU BY THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE ZONE REACHING THE FAR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE FRI WITH N-NE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL FORECAST THE LOW TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 28N69W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SW TO NEAR EASTERN CUBA. WILL FORECAST THE FRONT IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY WEAKENING AS A FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND VERY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR N ATLC WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE MAIN PROLONGED ISSUE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ZONE WILL BE VERY LARGE LARGE SEAS IN THE LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELLS. THESE SWELLS WILL BE VERY SLOW IN SUBSIDING...SO SEAS WILL STAY HIGH N OF ABOUT 25N THROUGH LATE WED BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT INTO FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE ATLC WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM N CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO JUST N OF JAMAICA. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1430 UTC MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT SPILLING SW FROM FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 15N. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W WITH NE-E 10 KT WINDS TO ITS W...AND SE WINDS 0F 10-15 KT TO ITS E. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 2-3 FT OVER MOST OF THE ZONES...EXCEPT IN THE NW ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE SLIGHTER HIGHER (3-5 FT) AND IN THE SW ZONE W OF ABOUT 79W WHERE SIMILAR SEAS ARE FOUND. HIGH PRES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS LOW PRES DRIFTS W OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR SE PORTION IS DAMPENING OUT WITH TIME. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WASH OUT THROUGH MON NIGHT. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRES PATTERN REMAINS RATHER WEAK. ONLY MINOR CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH E WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 73W THROUGH MON NIGHT...AMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE