000 AGXX40 KNHC 051857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT SAT NOV 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA. BUOYS OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS NOW HAVING VEERED TO THE E-SE AT 10-15 KT W OF 87W...AND N-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF 87W. BUOYS INDICATE THAT SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4-6 FT E OF 90W...AND 2-4 FT. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MON AND WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE IN THE FAR SW GULF ZONE ON THU. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THESE CONDITIONS BEFORE IMPLEMENTING GALE CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THAT ZONE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH TO A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT THE GULF LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOME EASTWARD SUN AND MON AND WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME E TO SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...AND FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED FOLLOWED BY NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REVEAL THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT FORMED OVER THE CAROLINA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED SE TO NEAR 30.5N73W AT 1001 MB. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 31N66W SW TO 25N72W AND TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 15 UTC THIS MORNING SHOW SW WINDS OF 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT SHOW NW-N WINDS NOW HAVING INCREASED TO 20-30 KT N OF 25N AND WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8-13 FT RANGE. S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE NW-N AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE REMNANT CLOUD BOUNDARY OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT NOW WEAKENED TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NEAR 24N65W SW TO NEAR N CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. BUOYS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOW SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. SEA STATE ANALYSES REVEAL SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN A N SWELL SE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND HIGHER SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN A NW SWELL TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 4-7 FT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE IN THE FAR NRN PORTION. THE RATHER VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE 1001 MB LOW AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS MOVED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND IS PRETTY MUCH COLLOCATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT ALSO WEAKENS. THE 12 UTC NOGAPS IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT WITH TAKING THE LOW S TO NEAR 26N70W...BUT THEN THEN DIFFERS WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5 BY TAKING THE LOW FURTHER SW. THE GFS AND UKMET IS ARE SIMILAR WITH FOR DAYS 3-5 WITH TAKING THE LOW FURTHER W AND A LOT FASTER TO NEAR 27N75W BY LATE WED THEN BECOMING ABSORBED BY A BROAD TROUGH ON THU. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH MON...THEN GO WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING A WEAK LOW NEAR 27N71W WED AND THU. BY SUN MORNING THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 28N69W 1009 MB WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT SW TO EASTERN CUBA. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE SUN INTO MON AND DRIFT W TUE THROUGH THU TO NEAR ABOVE MENTIONED PSN WITH FRONTAL TROUGH TO EASTERN CUBA. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING N OF THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING GALE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH SCENARIO WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME STRONG WITH NE-E GALE WINDS OF 35-45 KT N OF 28N E OF 78WT...WITH STORM CONDITIONS JUST N OF THE AREA. NE GALE WINDS OF 25-35 KT WILL REMAIN N OF THE FRONT INTO MON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER ON MON AND TUE. VERY LARGE SEAS OF UP TO 23 FT IN A N TO NE SWELL WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW...DIMINISHING ONLY SOME LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. BY WED INTO THU WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT WITH LINGERING SWELLS ALLOWING FOR SEAS UP TO 8 FT MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 77W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. HIGH PRES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE MON AND THROUGH WED AS LOW PRES DRIFTS W OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 19N58W TO 11N63W IS MOVING W AT 13 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN AS IT WEAKENS. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS. HIGH PRES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKEN LATE MON THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 78W...AMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE