000 AGXX40 KNHC 031848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT THU NOV 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO. LATEST AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY REVEAL THE VERY SHARP WIND SHIFT MARKING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING TO N-NE 20-30 KT WITH BUOYS REPORTING SEAS AS HIGH AS 11 FT PER BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1530 UTC THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE..SURFACE ANALYSIS AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SW TO NEAR 26N90W. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE N OF THE RIDGE ...WHILE E-SE WINDS OF SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE SE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S OF 25N E OF 90W WHERE NE-E 15 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...FROM NEAR NEAR TAMPA BAY TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUN THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME E TO SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST ...AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REMNANT CLOUD BOUNDARY OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N65W SW TO EAST/CENTRAL CUBA. BUOYS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOW NE WINDS NOW HAVING DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT TO ITS NW...AND SE-S WINDS OF 10 KT TO ITS SE. OVER THE FAR NW PORTION WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO E-SE AT 5-10 KT. OBSERVED SEA STATE SHOWS SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN A N SWELL SE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND HIGHER SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN A N TO NE SWELL TO THE NE AND E OF BAHAMAS...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 2-4 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MERGES WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. UPCOMING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA BEGINNING ON FRI REVOLVE AROUND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STREAM OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER TO SOME EXTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE SE...WITH THE GFS CARRYING A E-SE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH N WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS A FASTER WEAK LOW. THE 120O UTC ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTER WEAKER LOW ALSO COMING OFF THE CAROLINA FRI MORNING AND QUICKLY DROPPING TO NEAR 27N70W BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...AND TO NEAR 23N68W BY SUN. THIS IS FURTHER S HAN THE GFS. THE GFS HANGS ON TO THE OVER THE NE PORTION SUN THROUGH TUE. THE REST OF THE MODELS TEND TO SUGGEST IT WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL FORECAST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W BY FRI EVENING...WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT N OF AREA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N65W TO WEAKENING LOW PRES NEAR 28N69W 1007 MB TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT...FROM NEAR 27N65W TO NW CUBAN COAST SUN MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE PORTION LATER ON SUN AND MON...PERHAPS BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH TUE. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME STRONG WITH NE-E GALE WINDS OF 30-40 KT DEVELOPING N OF 28N BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT. NE GALE WINDS OF 25-35 KT WILL REMAIN N OF THE FRONT INTO MON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER ON MON AND TUE. VERY LARGE SEAS OF UP TO 21 FT IN A NW SWELL WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW...DIMINISHING ONLY SOME LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH MON THEN DIMINISH SOME TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 95W...GMZ082. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH MON N OF 27N...AMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING