000 AGXX40 KNHC 030754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SRN YUCATAN CHANNEL/NW CARIB LEAVING HIGH PRES IN CONTROL ACROSS THE BASIN. FRONTAL RELATED MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED W ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND NW ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF PAST 24 HOURS...WHERE SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. S TO SE FLOW ACROSS NW GULF HAS JUST BEGIN TO VEER SSW OFF THE TEXAS COAST...IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT NOW ALMOST ON THE COAST. THERE STILL REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT DO NOT REALLY REVEAL MAJOR ISSUES UNTIL DAY 3 AND BEYOND...WHEN SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE SW ATLC. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THAT AREA. RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST GALES W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 06Z FRI...YIELDING A 12 HOUR EVENT...WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 40 KT. FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 21N95W THEN S-SE INTO MEXICO BY 12Z FRI...THEN MOVE SE OF BASIN FRI NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME I STILL PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH SHIFTING SE OF GREAT LAKES AND DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO YIELD STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS E HALF OF GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN EXPANDING WWD ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH TUE. OFFSHORE SEAS COULD BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT ACROSS ERN GULF SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING IN NE WIND SWELL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23.5N72W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO SHEARLINE SE ACROSS CUBA. LLVL TROUGH HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM MONA PASSAGE NNE TO NEAR FRONT AT 28N62W...AND WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH OLD FRONT AND BECOME MORE NE TO SW ALIGNED THROUGH FRI AS FRONT IS FORCED SLOWLY SE. FORECAST FROM SAT ON THEN BECOMES STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY VARYING SOLUTIONS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT DIVING SE INTO SW N ATLC. IN SUMMARY...GFS SEEM TO BE ALONG IN DEVELOPING A STRONG LLVL VORTEX NE OF THE BAHAMAS LATE SAT AND SUN...THEN MAINTAINS AND MEANDERS A BROAD COLD CORE LOW ALONG ABOUT 71/72W THROUGH THU MORNING...WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A QUICKLY FILLING LOW EVOLVING INTO AN ELONGATED BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH YIELDING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT TO THE N AND POTENTIAL FOR NE TO E GALES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MAJOR EVENT FOR THIS AREA N OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 18 FT LIKELY OFFSHORE...AND THE FLORIDA COAST EXPECTED TO GET POUNDED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND VERY LARGE SURF! UPON FURTHER EVALUATION...GALES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NW PORTION SAT AT 12Z E OF 80W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... EXCEPT FOR FRESH NELY FLOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NW OF THE SHEAR LINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BROAD TROUGHING RECENTLY CARVED OUT ALONG 67/68W WITH TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING TO IGNITE INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY FRI AND FRACTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT/SAT. AS STATED ABOVE...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WAS THE 00Z/03 ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE THAT IS BEING ISSUED THIS MORNING. THIS SOLUTION DISSIPATED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIB SAT AS A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY S THROUGH CUBA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUN MORNING. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 95W...GMZ082. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 80W SAT THROUGH SUN...AMZ080. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING