000 AGXX40 KNHC 021845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED NOV 2 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE WIPED OUT BY A FAST MOVING SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THU/FRI. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEST DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WITH THIS FRONT...PARTICULARLY AFTER FRI WHEN THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT MOVING THE FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BEFORE SUNRISE THU AND REACHING FROM EXTREME NW FLORIDA TO NEAR NW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z FRI...WITH GFS THEN THE FASTEST AND UKMET SLOWEST. MODELS ALSO AGREE IN BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AS NLY FLOW FUNNELS S BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL ISSUE GALES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...STARTING 18Z THU S OF 25N W OF FRONT. FRONT TO MOVE SE OF BASIN FRI NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC. SEE THE FORECAST REASONING BELOW FOR THE SW N ATLC. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MERGE WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W TONIGHT THROUGH THU. FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AS NELY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD PUSHING S AND SW INTO THE AREA...WITH WW3 BUILDING SEAS 10-12 FT N OF 28N E OF 77W TONIGHT. FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY FRI WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LINGERING OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE E. THE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE SE...WITH THE GFS CARRYING A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE LOW E-SE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH N WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE NOGAPS CARRIES A FASTER MOVING OPEN WAVE. THE LATEST CMC...UKMET...AND 00Z/02 ECMWF LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THESE THREE SOLUTIONS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAT ITS 00Z/02 RUN...AND IS SHOWING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WAS JUST ISSUED MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. GALE FLAGS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN FAR NW WATERS LATE FRI OR SAT IF THE MODEL CONSENSUS SWINGS TOWARD A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... EXCEPT FOR FRESH NELY FLOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION THU. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY FRI AND FRACTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MAY EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. AS STATED ABOVE...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WAS THE 00Z/02 ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS SOLUTION TAKES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TROUGH CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 95W THU...GMZ082. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING