000 AGXX40 KNHC 020823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT WED NOV 2 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SECONDARY FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT YIELDING FRESH NELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF BASIN AND AROUND 20 KT GENERALLY S OF 25N...WITH SEAS LIKELY 6-7 FT. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR YUCATAN PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PUSHED W ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE...IMHO. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OPENING UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PLAINS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEST DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WITH THIS FRONT... PARTICULARLY AFTER FRI WHEN THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF FRONT MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST BEFORE SUNRISE THU AND REACHING FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY/EXTREME NW FLORIDA TO NEAR NW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z FRI...WITH GFS FASTEST AND UKMET SLOWEST. MODELS ALSO AGREE IN BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AS NLY FLOW FUNNELS S BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL ISSUE GALES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE... STARTING 18Z THU S OF 25N W OF FRONT. FRONT TO MOVE SE OF BASIN FRI NIGHT WITH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64.5W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEARLINE TO WESTERN CUBA...WITH SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVING S AND SE TO NW BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE OF SE FLORIDA...AND EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ORIGINAL FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT PREVAIL BEHIND THE TWO BOUNDARIES AND HAVE BEEN VERY GUSTY PAST 12 HOURS AS COOL AIR BEHIND SECONDARY BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OVER WARM ATLC WATERS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE N HALF OF FLORIDA ATTM. MERGED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SSE INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 31N60W BY THU AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING NE TO E AND ABATING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AS NELY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD PUSHING S AND SW INTO THE AREA...WITH WW3 BUILDING SEAS 10-12 FT N OF 28N E OF 77W TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 64W WILL DRIFT JUST A TAD FURTHER W THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MERGE WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE E OF AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO NE COAST OF COSTA RICA WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 82W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR FRESH NELY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIB NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION THU. WEAKENED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SE CARIB ATTM YIELDING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE WINDWARDS AND POSSIBLY 20 KT OF SE FLOW BEHIND IT. TUTT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB YDA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND LESSENING ITS EFFECTS THERE ATTM. A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W/44W WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY FRI AND FRACTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ082. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING