000 AGXX40 KNHC 010752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STALLED COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE LINGERING FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA W-SW TO N CENTRAL COAST OF YUCATAN...WITH W SECTIONS DRIFTING W DUE TO ELY SURGE ACROSS FAR NW CARIB. MODERATE NELY FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF SE HALF OF BASIN BECOMING NLY ACROSS SW GULF WHILE FLOW HAS BEGUN TO OPEN UP AND BECOME ESE ACROSS THE NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA 150-180 NW OF FRONT. A NEW SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE E AND S CENTRAL GULF TODAY BEHIND A WEAK AND REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF COAST OF SE STATES AND FLORIDA...AND WILL MAINTAIN WINDS NEAR 20 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE HALF...AND SEAS REMAINING GENERALLY 5-8 FT. ASSOCIATED HIGH PRE ACROSS SE U.S. WILL PUSH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL BY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN GENERALLY DIMINISH AND VEER E TO SE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO THU NIGHT...AND FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ATTM BEHIND FRONT AND COULD BE ENHANCED TO 30 KT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST THU AND THU NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... OLD MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS NW PART FROM NEAR 31N73W TO JUST S OF FLORIDA KEYS...WITH FRONTAL LOW MOVING NE AND JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA. SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS WITH FRESH NLY WINDS SPILLING S BEHIND IT. SEAS STILL 8-10 BETWEEN FRONTS. SE TO S FLOW PREVAILS TO THE E OF THIS...WITH TUTT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING 60W ATTM ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...AND A SLOWLY WEAKENING WIND SURGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TOP BETWEEN 20N AND 26N. FRONTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NE TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS QUICKLY OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS NEXT 24 HOURS...AND NLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS NW PORTIONS W OF 74-75W...FORCING NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY S AND SE...REACHING FROM 31N65W TO NW CUBA NEAR 23N80W BY WED MORNING...AND NEARLY MERGED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THIS NEW FRONT WILL EXPAND AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS BEHIND THIS NEW FRONT...AND ALSO ALLOW NNE SWELL TO REFRACT AROUND BAHAMA BANK AND INTO SE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND AGAINST THE GULF STREAM. FRONT TO MAKE VERY SLIGHT PROGRESS THEN THROUGH WED EVENING WITH FRESH NELY WINDS 15-25 KT BEHIND FRONT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT N OF 29N. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SE TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU EVENING WINDS WINDS DIMINISHING...BUT NELY SWELL GENERATED FROM HATTERAS LOW TO AFFECT REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81.5W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NNW TOWARD TO NE COASTAL HONDURAS. MODERATE NELY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRIDGE ACROSS FRONT JUST N OF YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO FAR NW CARIB. MEANWHILE A LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGE SUPPORTED BY TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB HAS ALLOWED ELY WINDS TO BUILD BEYOND 80W PAST FEW HOURS AND IS STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW AND W CARIB. STRONG CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT LOW ALSO MAINTAINING LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN 63W AND 74W ATTM...WITH SECOND TUTT LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE ATLC APPROACHING 60W HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN THE GRADIENT AND TRADES ACROSS THE NE CARIB. THE TUTT LOW HAS ENDED ITS WWD MOVEMENT OF PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH THE NEW FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND THROUGH THE STRAITS...NELY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIB WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT BY WED EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE WEAKNESS INDUCED TO S OF TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 60W WILL SHIFT W TO 65-66W NEXT FEW DAYS AND HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADES ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE CARIB. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W AND MOVING W ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC ATTM PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N THAT WILL SHIFT NW THROUGH WED. A NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 55W FRI MORNING WITH SIMILAR ACTIVE WEATHER. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING