000 AGXX40 KNHC 310730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE GULF...ARCHING SW TO NE YUCATAN COAST AND APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING W ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. 0226 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE TO E WINDS 20 KT N OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 26.5N WITH A FEW SPOTS TO 20 KT N AND NW OF THERE. AVAILABLE BUOYS IN THE AREA RUNNING 4-6 FT ATTM. A WAVE OR LOW PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE FLORIDA COAST TODAY AND TO LIFT NE...ALLOWING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES TO BUILD SW TOWARD TEXAS AND TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF...YIELDING A ZONE OF 20 KT NELY WINDS EXTENDING SW INTO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TONIGHT TO MAINTAIN CAA ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE ERN GULF...AND MAINTAIN 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS S AND SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED TO PUSH A MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INDUCE A MORE ELY FLOW...STILL WITH 20 KT ENE FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE GULF. FAST MOVING DEEP LAYERED LOW TO SWEEP INTO THE MS VALLEY WED NIGHT AND THU AND PUSH A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NW GULF BY THU MORNING. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N60W TO NEAR 25N74W THEN W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT N AS OBS ACROSS THE KEYS SHOW SE WINDS AND WINDS BETWEEN NW BAHAMAS A MIAMI ARE NOW ESE. THERE IS STILL AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE INVOF OF THIS OLD BOUNDARY AND ALSO ADVECTING NNW OUT OF THE NW CARIB TO INTERACT WITH DYNAMICS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TSTMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG CELLS TODAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...WAVE OR LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INVOF OF THE NW BAHAMAS TODAY THEN LIFT QUICKLY NE TONIGHT AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO BOMBING LOW FORECAST OFF OF HATTERAS TUE. REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND INTO NW CUBA. THE NEW BOUNDARY WILL NEARLY MERGE WITH OLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7 TO 11 FT W OF 70W BY THEN...WITH THIS NE SWELL REFRACTING AROUND THE LITTLE BAHAMA BANK AND INTO THE SE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...AND AGAINST THE GULF STREAM. TUTT LOW REFLECTION MARCHING WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AND REACH NEAR 65W BY 00Z THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING WWD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND ERN CARIB AND HAS PUSHED THE LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIB WWD TO NEAR THE YUCATAN/BELIZE COASTS WHERE IT HAS NEARLY MERGED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELY TRADES TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF 15N ACROSS THE E CARIB..WHERE DEEP LAYERED ELY FLOW IS BEING REINFORCED DUE TO TUTT LOW ALONG 72W. VIGOROUS LOW IS PROMOTING SHOWER AND TSTM GROWTH ACROSS N AND NE SEMICIRCLES ATTM...WITH UPPER CONVERGENCE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE WEAK LOW FORECAST BY MODELS AND SUGGESTED BY STLT IMAGERY...NEAR 11N81.5W...WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT SPILLING S ALONG THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA. LOW WILL DRIFT W AND INLAND NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE FRONT LIFTS N THEN IS PUSHED S INTO CUBA ON TUE...ALLOWING FRESH NELY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF CUBA TO ABOUT 20N. TUTT LOW REFLECTION MENTIONED ABOVE TO MOVE ACROSS NE CARIB WED AND TO N OF PUERTO RICO BY 00Z THU AND WILL MAINTAIN WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLC AT THAT TIME AND BECOME FOCUS OF CONVECTION REGIONALLY. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE S OF 11N ALONG 54/55W THIS MORNING AND BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH SHIFT W ACROSS W PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH TUE MORNING THEN SHIFT MORE NW TOWARDS NRN WINDWARDS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING